The Impact of the Ukraine War on Energy Dynamics between Japan and Russia with Regional Dialogue via the Northern Sea Route

Dissertationsprojekt von Timo Mohr

Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Andreas Renner

This research delves into Japan's strategic interests in the Arctic, with a particular focus on its collaboration with Russia as the largest Arctic power, exploring the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the contemporary shifting focus of Arctic energy cooperation towards the East, especially by enabling the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as the main shipping route traversing through Russian territory.
The proposed project is innovative in that it takes an interdisciplinary approach, combining aspects of Japanese studies and political science while also placing them in a historical context. The study navigates the intricate dynamics of the Japanese-Russian relationship, emphasizing historical tensions and geopolitical complexities. Using a 1+3 framework, it scrutinizes the roles of Japan, Russia, China, and South Korea in shaping the Arctic landscape. The research, adopting a regional focus on areas adjacent to the Russian boarders, investigates the transformative effects of the war on energy collaboration and identifies potential avenues for sustained dialogue beyond the Arctic Council. The primary research question explores how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected energy cooperation in the Arctic, which have been established over the last quarter century, with an adhered hypothesis suggesting a transformative impact despite temporary disruptions. The dissertation uses a dual-methodology approach, employing digital analysis and International Relations frameworks to examine Japan and Russia's strategic interests in the Arctic, especially in the NSR and in Arctic resources to redirect the narrative from pessimistic views of Northeast Asian regionalism to spotlight a more dynamic contemporary reality. Empirical evidence is drawn from statements, articles, and expert interviews with Japanese and Russian inter alia policymakers and industry professionals.